Posts tagged: leisure

NFL Preseason Handicapping Basics

By Ross Everett, February 9, 2010 9:03 am

Among the sports betting public there’s a lot of conflicting opinions about betting NFL preseason games. That’s not really surprising, since there doesn’t seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater “lock” that preseason football. Like most things that produce such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.

The most compelling argument against preseason wagering is simply that the games don’t count. While there are often spots during the regular season where teams may seem more or less motivated, in theory they all want to win. That’s not something that can be taken as a ‘given’ during the preseason, however, as the individual agendas of NFL coaching staffs can very widely. Some might want to win games to establish a winning attitude, others might put a greater focus on working in a new offensive or defensive scheme. Others may prioritize evaluating talent at key positions, while others may simply want to make it through to the regular season without any significant injuries. With all of the uncertainty swirling around preseason football, handicapping wins and losses against the pointspread can be exceedingly difficult.

But like the old saying goes “every dark cloud has a silver lining”. And the divergent agendas at play in preseason football can be seen as precisely why it is a good wagering opportunity. For example, say the Superbowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers are set to play an ‘also ran’ team like the Houston Texans. By regular season standards, the Steelers would almost certainly be favored. In the preseason, however, they’ll often have a different agenda for the individual game. A “better” team has more concern about protecting key players. and usually has fewer personnel decisions to deal with. They don’t need to worry about implementing coaching changes, or creating ‘team chemistry’. As a result, ‘better’ teams frequently approach preseason games as a mere annoyance.

On the other hand, consider the ‘lesser’ team in a preseason matchup. They often have a number of key starting positions they need to fill, along with backup positions up for grabs. They may have new coaching staffs that players want to impress, new offensive or defensive schemes to implement. Most significantly, ‘lesser’ teams often view the preseason as an opportunity to build team chemistry or create a winning attitude. A team trying to rebuild can benefit from winning *any* games, regardless of whether or not they count in the standings. For a league doormat, a win over an elite level opponent can serve as a rare highlight of a losing season.

Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don’t want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%.

There may be no greater determining factor of a team’s preseason success than the philosophy of their head coach. Some coaches just don’t like to lose *any* game, and usually these hyper-competitive teams are good preseason bets. Bill Parcells, for example, was legendary for his serious approach to preseason games. The coaches that he mentored like the NY Giants’ Tom Coughlin have to some extent carried on this legacy. While the “good” preseason coaches are often reflected in the pointspreads assigned to their team, a motivated team is almost always worth a look.

One of the best tools that a handicapper has at his disposal during the preseason is the Internet. Actually, it’s a great tool year round but during the preseason it is invaluable. The best source of information on coaching philosophies, game plans, injuries, lineup changes, etc, are the local sports pages of NFL teams. Basically, the situation during preseason is that there is a lot of interest in the team and a lot of anxious beat writers looking to write stories. The problem is that there is little in the way of real news, and for that reason you’ll find the sort of minutiae on teams and players from which you can often extract relevant handicapping information. Even if there aren’t any nuggets of handicapping gold, you can at least get a feel for the coach’s goals for the game and the amount of playing time that key players will see. Sometimes coaches will come right out and say who will play at what juncture of the game, and will occasionally go on record that personnel decisions like evaluating all of the guys they’re considering for the backup defensive secondary jobs are more important than winning. Clearly, operating with this knowledge is a distinct advantage and operating without it can be fatal. There’s nothing more frustrating than betting on a team only to have them look like they could care less whether or not they win the game. During the preseason, however, it can frequently be prevented with some simple research and analysis.

In conclusion, there are certainly strong opportunities for profit in NFL preseason wagering but its essential to understand that it cannot be approached in the same manner as the regular season. And, as always, its important to remember that there will be more strong opportunities down the road and that discipline and rigor in handicapping is just as crucial in the preseason NFL as it is at any other time of the year.

Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer experienced in travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.

Rio Beats Out Chicago, Two Other Cities To Claim 2016 Summer Olympics

By Ross Everett, February 6, 2010 8:53 am

South America will host the Summer Olympic Games for the first time in 2016, as Rio De Janeiro, Brazil was awarded the honor on Friday. Rio beat out the US choice of Chicago, Illinois along with Tokyo, Japan and Madrid, Spain to earn the right to host the games. Despite a high pressure effort from the American power elite–ncluding President Barak Obama and TV gabfest queen Oprah Winfrey–Chicago was the first city eliminated from contention. Tokyo was the next to go, before Rio got the nod over Madrid in the final round of balloting.

Bookmakers offered odds on the host city choice, with Rio listed as second favorite at +200. Chicago had been the wagering favorite at most books, particularly after President Obama got involved personally in the US bid effort. Chicago was bet as high as a -300 favorite, while Madrid and Tokyo were priced in the +250 range. Some suggest that Tokyo didnt deserve to have such short odds, but was the beneficiary of regional pride from the notoriously enthusiastic betting population of Japan.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, President of Brazil, got the better of his US counterpart Barack Obama The Brazilian leader stressed the unfairness that South America had never hosted the games in his speech to the committee;

“It is a time to address this imbalance. It is time to light the Olympic cauldron in a tropical country.”

The Olympic committee was apparently swayed by this presentation and paid no mind to Rios many downsides. It is without a doubt the most dangerous of the finalist cities, where drug cartels and armed bands of thugs roam without impunity. Well do to Rio citizens are used to removing watches and jewelry before they drive anywhere lest they be targeted by carjacking brigands. Rios murder rate is also one of the highest in the world. Brazilian bid officials have stressed that security will be a priority at the games and it better be lest the Olympics turn into a bloodbath. For the time being, however, the mood in Rio was one of celebration with over 50,000 residents dancing and partying in the streets.

Some IOC members suggested that the summary dismissal of Chicagos bid was more of a rebuke of the notoriously corrupt USOC. The last two Olympics held in the US were tainted by crime and corruption. The’96 Atlanta Olympics were disrupted by a terrorist bombing, while the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Games were marred by a well known bribery and corruption scandal. Some suggested that US President Obama’s quick and perfunctory visit was taken as more of an insult by the delegates than anything else.

Ross Everett is a widely published widely published freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

Steelers End Vikings Undefeated Run

By Ross Everett, January 29, 2010 8:16 am

Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings are undefeated no more. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ used a couple of big plays from their defense in the fourth quarter to break open a close game and defeat the Vikings by a final score of 27-17. Favre put up decent yardage in the loss, throwing for 334 yards but had no touchdowns and an interception. The defending Superbowl Champion Steelers improved to 5-2, while the Vikings are now 6-1.

NFL pointspread players who backed the Steelers as -6 home favorites were rewarded with the cover. Pittsburgh had only covered one of their first six games heading into the contest, and the win improved their record against the number to 2-5. Minnesota dropped to 4-3 against the spread with the setback.

The Steelers largely shut down Minnesota’s rushing game, holding Adrian Peterson to 69 yards. Pittsburgh safety Ryan Clark underscored his team’s dominance against the run:

“That’s the biggest point of the game. You have the best running back in the world and you don’t give it to him. They’re saying they can’t beat us running, and that’s a major statement when you have the guy they have back there.”

Favre gave a mealy mouthed justification for the loss in his postgame interview:

“There were a lot of what ifs, a lot of reasons we didn’t win. The red zone was one of them. They’re physical, and they were as good as we thought they’d be. … When I came here and looked at our schedule and saw the Steelers game, I went, ‘Oh-h-h.’ ”

Favre has only thrown three interceptions in a Vikings’ uniform, but #3 was a costly one as it was returned by Steelers’ Keyaron Fox for a touchdown to put the game out of reach as Minnesota was driving for a potential game tying field goal. Afterwards, Fox recalled the play:

“Brett tried to force it in there and the running back bobbled it and slipped out of his hands and it fell into my lap. I had just run across the field after Peterson and I was winded, so it felt like it was 100-plus yards.”

The Vikings now face another big game next week as they head to Favre’s old stomping grounds in Green Bay for a battle with the Packers. It’ll be Favre’s first appearance at his old home in an enemy uniform. The Vikings will then have a bye weekend before hosting the lowly Detroit Lions on November 15. Pittsburgh will enjoy a bye week this week before returning to action on Monday, November 9th facing the Denver Broncos on the road.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

Del Mar: Southern California’s Horse Racing Capital

By Ross Everett, January 26, 2010 8:55 am

Southern California’s Del Mar Racetrack has been is often overshadowed by East Coast venues like Churchill Downs and Belmont Park. The reality is that the 72 year old track has a history to rival their better known counterparts that includes the greatest horses and jockeys in the sport, as well as a healthy dose of show biz glitz. Operated by the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club and located 20 miles North of San Diego, its perhaps most famous for its iconic slogan: “Where The Surf Meets the Turf.”

The Del Mar Thoroughbred Club was founded by a group of well heeled enthusiasts in the mid’30s, and they immediately turned their attention to building a world class horse racing venue. The names that were instrumental in the creation of Del Mar include a whos who of American entertainment–most notably Bing Crosby, Oliver Hardy (of Laurel and Hardy) and Jimmy Durante. At the time the facility opened thoroughbred horse racing was the second most popular sport in America behind major league baseball, and Del Mar quickly gained a reputation for being a player in the industry.

The starpower drawn to the course was unprecedented. Bing Crosby himself greeted patrons at the gate on opening day, and during the late’30s and early’40s it became a place to be seen for Hollywood A-listers and those who aspired for celebrity. In addition to known gambling enthusiasts like W.C. Fields, Edgar Bergen and Red Skelton, the Del Mar patrons during that time also included some of the top female stars of the era including Ava Gardner, Paulette Goddard and Dorothy Lamour

In’38, Del Mar hosted an internationally anticipated match race between Seabiscuit and Ligaroti. This event drew a record crowd and gained worldwide notoriety for the track. Seabiscuit won the $25,000 winner-take-all duel by a nose, and would forever be enshrined in the annals of American popular culture. Horse racing at Del Mar continued to be a smash until the facility went dark in’41 due to World War II. It would remain closed until’45, and for a time was used as a training facility by the military.

After the war Del Mar didn’t miss a beat, and reopened the day after Japan surrendered to Allied Forces in Tokyo Bay. That day drew over 21,000 fans to the park and set a new wagering record of over $950,000. The track flourished during the post war economic boom years, and improved transportation between the major urban centers in Southern California–along with a new crop of stars including Mickey Rooney, Jimmy Durante and Desi Arnez, Jr.–kept the track in the limelight.

Del Mar remains a viable part of the thoroughbred community to this day. Theyve updated their facility, with a state of the art grand stand and most recently a synthetic polytrack surface that was installed in 2007. The racing season at Del Mar begins in mid July, and hosts crowds of 20,000+ on a daily basis throughout.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

The Story Of’77 Triple Crown Winner Seattle Slew

By Ross Everett, January 23, 2010 8:05 am

Seattle Slew, horse racing’s lone remaining living Triple Crown winner, passed away on May 7, 2002 at the age of 28. Already ranked among the all time greats by virtue of this accomplishment alone, Slew is even more notable as the only Triple Crown winner to go undefeated as a three year hold. He came from humble beginnings, bought at public auction–the only Triple Crown winner to be acquired in this manner. After retiring to stud in’78 he remained a very profitable horse based on a stud fee of $300,000. His offspring earned over $76 million dollars at the race track and include over 100 stakes race winners including’84 Kentucky Derby champion Swale.

The Seattle Slew story began very modestly at a public auction in Lexington, Kentucky. The Keeneland Summer Yearling sale wasn’t supposed to be the marketplace of champions, and the idea that this particular horse would ever amount to anything other than a farmhand was downright laughable. He was somewhat clumsy looking due to a front right forefoot splay and had a shuffling gait at trot. Slew wasn’t a beautifully majestic creature like his Triple Crown winning predecessor, Secretariat. Slew was borderline ugly. So ungainly a creature was he that he was given the less than inspiring nickname “Baby Huey” by the Keeneland staff. He was purchased by two couples (Karen and Mickey Taylor and Jim and Sally Hill) for $17,500. What wasn’t apparent at the yearling sale was the intangibles that make up a championship thoroughbred–poise under pressure, love of competition, toughness, heart and desire. His owners had unwittingly stumbled onto an equine Muhammad Ali, and his competitive fire quickly became apparent to his trainers and jockeys. His first race came at Belmont Park in’76, and he entered–and won–three races as a two year old giving a glimpse as to what like ahead.

Slew quickly became a horse to watch as a three year old as he won three Derby prep races including the Wood Memorial. In the Derby, Slew got off to a terrible start as he stumbled out of the gate. He recovered from the miscue and essentially bulled his way through a pack of horses to lead at the 1/4 mile pole. Slew would win the Derby by a length and 3 quarters. He took another tough victory at the Preakness before clinching the Triple Crown with a 4 length victory in the Belmont Stakes.

Slew ran in a few races as a 4 year old but in the pre-Breeders’ Cup days there wasn’t as many opportunities for an older horse. He retired to stud in’78, where he sired champions such as the aforementioned Swale and’92 Belmont Champ AP Indy.

In some ways, Slew had much in common with the heavyweight championship reign of Larry Holmes. He came so quickly on the heels of such incredible excellence–Slew was forever in the shadow of’73 Triple Crown winner Secretariat, Holmes on the heels of Muhammad Ali–that he never gained the appreciation he deserved during his prime. In hindsight, however, it has finally been noted what an exceptional horse he really was. Jockey Angel Cordero, who rode Slew during the twilight of his career noted “If I had a chance to take any horse in the world, if someone said your life is depending on riding one horse to win, I would take (Slew). I rode 44,000 horses, but he was special, he was different. He was muscled, like a wrestler. He ran different than any other horse. It was like he came from another planet.”

After his death in 2002, Slew was buried at Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm in Lexington, Kentucky under a statue in his image.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and noted authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

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